EL NINO ON PAPERS can we be more precise??

Last year we were expecting heavy rains, this was according to our meteorological department. To be precise warning report by the Boss came out early than the usual character of predicting what has already happenned. For those of us who were keen to know how the weather would behave at the time of planting, this was a releif for we were aware of what were to happen. "...............Heavy rains... in the name of El-nino...." ....So in East Africa we were expecting El-nino and it was to begin late in October. With our Knowledge of what happened in 1997/98 particularly in Tanzania due to el-nino, this time people were determined to make use of the rain. But interestingly this time around we have seen contrary to what was said. The rains falling below average has been a common feature. Anyway this could be because these were short rains which could have beeover estimated. But very rery cecently we also received a report that the long rains will be above average. The announcement came out immediately after the first heavy rains that covered the whole country. Since then several parts of the country have not received rains for sometime contraray to what was forecasted. At times one wonders whether Met. people have the right people and the wrong equipments or the right equipments and the wrong people. Apart from sun-set and sunrise prediction I have never seen them make the correct prediction. As an agricultural country whatever happens at Met departments affects us directly, it is equally important to make sure that we have the right tools and equipments also people to read and come out with the right recommendations rather than predicting what is not.... thus making the wrong judgement and misleading our people and their livelihood.